Oregon Ranks 10th in Rate of In-Migration from 2018 to 2019

On December 30, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau released state population change estimates from July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019. Oregon ranked 10th in rate of net in-migration. 

Here is how Oregon ranked in other published categories: 

27th in population as of July 1, 2019  (4,217,737)
15th in population growth since 2018 (35,851)
13th in population growth rate since 2018 (0.9%)
11th net in-migration since 2018 (29,116)
10th in net in-migration rate per 1,000 people since 2018 (6.9%)
31st in natural increase since 2018 (6,742)
37th in natural increase rate per 1,000 people since 2018 (1.6%)

To learn more, view the detailed population tables here. 

Oregon Employment Forecast: Slow and Stable

Entering its eleventh year, the U.S. economic expansion is now the longest in recorded history. Growth slowed in 2019, and the burning question is why? Economic weakness – foretelling a recession – or simply what one might expect in such a mature expansion?

The answer likely lies somewhere in between. Business investment has been weak to nonexistent over the past year. The trade war, tariffs, slowing global growth, and the political climate have hurt sales and created an atmosphere of uncertainty. On the other hand, incomes are rising, inflation is low, and consumer spending is strong. In addition, the economy is at, or near, full employment, which also explains the subdued job growth.

The bottom line is that the U.S. economy remains in expansion mode and while the slowdown in business spending is cause for concern, it does not necessarily portend an imminent recession.

Oregon

Like the nation, Oregon continues to add jobs at a slower pace as our economy transitions from the peak rates of a few years ago to a more sustainable pace today. Oregon’s slowdown points more to labor supply constraints than to economic weakness, according to the latest forecast from the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA). Employers have a dwindling pool to draw from when trying to fill jobs, thus dampening what might have been more robust job creation.

Meanwhile income is rising. In 2018, Oregon’s median household income grew faster than every state except Idaho. After decades of lagging the nation, OEA points out that the typical Oregonian’s household income is now 2.4 percent higher than their national counterparts.

Like the nation, the outlook is positive. OEA expects the state will add 28,200 jobs in 2020 (1.5%), or 2,400 jobs a month; about the same as in 2019. While this is significantly slower than the 4,000-to-5,000 jobs per month of a few years ago, it is enough to absorb new workers entering the labor force given our decelerating population growth.

The public sector will outperform its recent past across most components: Local government will grow as revenues continue to improve in step with the economy, and the federal component will benefit from Census hiring. Private education and health services also accelerates, primarily the healthcare component as our population continues to grow and age. Professional and business services rebounds from its recent slump and adds more jobs than all other broad industries.

OEA expects several industries to slow or lose jobs in 2020. The manufacturing sector turns negative, weighed down by trade issues, global risks, and the announced closure of two NORPAC food processing plants. Construction also decelerates even as the housing rebound continues; growth rates topping 8 percent in recent years are simply unsustainable. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector settles down after the Amazon surge of the past few years, which saw thousands of jobs created in the warehousing component.

While growth should continue in 2020, the next recession is a matter of when, not if. Outside of unforeseen financial or geopolitical shocks, it is unlikely to happen within the next year.

To learn more, read Regional Economist Amy Vander Vliet's full article here.

Oregon Construction Employment at Record Highs

Oregon’s construction industry reached a record high number of jobs in recent months, employing an average of 108,000 during the 12 months ending with October 2019. The industry added jobs steadily and rapidly in recent years, following a prolonged slump in 2009 through 2012, when employment remained near 70,000 for several years after the last recession.

Looking back 30 years, clearly the industry has been highly cyclical – experiencing booms and busts over the course of multi-year expansions that were followed by briefer, but potentially precipitous contractions.

In the late 1990s, the industry hovered close to 80,000 jobs for several years, dropped some jobs in a mild recession and then resumed its climb. Just before the 2008 recession, Oregon’s construction industry was slightly below today’s employment total, at about 104,000 jobs.

During the past several decades, at least since the late 1980s, Oregon’s economy and population have been on a generally expansionary trend. Population typically grew about 1 percent per year, primarily due to net in-migration – more people moving into Oregon compared with the number moving out.

Because the population has been steadily expanding, it can be helpful to look at the construction industry’s total jobs relative to overall employment. Over the past 30 years, construction has employed between 4 percent and 6 percent of Oregon’s total nonfarm payroll employment. The lowest share during this period occurred in 1992, when 4 percent were employed in construction. Not far behind was the period from 2010 through 2012 when about 4.2 percent of payroll jobs were found in construction.

The housing-price boom leading up to the last recession coincided with the biggest share of construction jobs, as construction employed 6 percent of all nonfarm payroll jobs during much of 2006 and 2007. Currently, Oregon’s construction industry isn’t quite as concentrated as that period, with 5.5 percent of nonfarm jobs in the industry as of October of this year. This is moderately above the 4.9 percent average over the past 30 years.

Leading up to the past two national recessions, Oregon’s construction employment has either trended downward, as was the case in 1997 through 2000, or abruptly tanked, as occurred just prior to, and certainly during, the recession of 2008 and 2009. Over the past 12 months, the industry has stalled at a high level of employment, following rapid growth over the past several years.

One of the reasons that the current economic expansion – both in Oregon and at the national level – has been so long and persistent is due to the pattern of housing starts. In the several years immediately following the last recession, building permits and housing starts were very low by historic standards. The low level of residential construction activity and spending was a limiting factor for economic growth, given that new-home building is a major component of change in the overall dollar value of economic activity for a region. In Oregon, residential building permits (single-family and multi-family combined) stagnated near an average monthly rate of 600 during 2009 through 2011, but have since climbed to the current rate of 1,700 per month. Despite the near-tripling of monthly housing permits in the time span, we’re still well below peak levels seen during several periods during the 1990s and mid-2000s, not to mention the house-building boom in the late 1970s, when building permit activity was double the current level.

Construction activity includes more than just building homes and apartments. There is road construction and commercial construction, as well as remodeling and other forms of construction employment. This brief article looked at the trends over time in residential building permits, as they are a key measurement that is readily available to assess Oregon’s construction industry.

Overall, Oregon’s construction employment trends indicate that we are currently experiencing booming times in the industry. Oregon has gone through several cycles in the construction industry over the past several decades. Our current situation, while near a record high in terms of overall construction jobs, is not running at as frenzied a pace as has been seen in the past, at least when measured relative to the state’s ever-growing population.

Read Current Employment Statistics Coordinator David Cooke's full article here.

Differences in Workers' Employment, Education and Industry by Ethnicity

According to the 2013-2017 five-year ACS estimates (the most current available), Oregon had roughly 2.1 million people between the ages of 25 and 64. Of them, 236,000 were of Hispanic or Latino origin, while the state’s non-Hispanic population in the same prime working age range totaled 1.9 million. The non-Hispanic population includes Oregonians of any race (African-American, Asian, Native American, White, or any other race(s)) that did not self-identify as Hispanic or Latino.

Educational attainment differed widely between Hispanic and non-Hispanic prime working age populations. Almost two-thirds (63%) of the non-Hispanic population had some education beyond high school. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of the Hispanic population had a high school diploma or less.

Labor Force Participation

Employment and labor force participation also varied notably between Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. At all education levels, larger shares of the Hispanic prime working age population were in the labor force. The largest disparities occurred among those with less education. Nearly half (45%) of the non-Hispanic population with less than a high school degree sat out of the labor force, compared with 21 percent of Hispanic or Latino Oregonians in the same age group. Among those with at least some college education, shares of the population who were employed looked quite similar.

Education Pays

Hispanic and Latino workers ages 25 to 64 with a high school diploma or less were particularly concentrated in lower-wage industries. Annual wages for all jobs covered by Unemployment Insurance in Oregon averaged $52,400 in 2018. While roughly one-third (35%) of all non-Hispanic workers held jobs in sectors that paid below the all-industry average, nearly half (48%) of Hispanic workers did. As educational attainment increased, the distribution of industry employment looked similar by ethnicity.

Manufacturing and construction showed similar patterns for Hispanics and non-Hispanics. Comparable shares of both Hispanic and non-Hispanic prime-age workers across education categories held jobs in manufacturing. Larger shares of prime-age workers with a high school degree or less held jobs in construction compared with more educated workers.

Keep Learning for Higher Earnings

Overall, the portion of Oregonians ages 25 to 64 that participated in the labor force and held jobs increased along with educational attainment. Employed Oregonians with more education were also more likely to work in higher-wage industries. Larger shares of the Oregon’s Hispanic or Latino prime working age population had not earned a high school diploma. Hispanic and Latino workers were more concentrated in lower-paying industries. Additional data about the demographic and educational attainment characteristics of workers can be found on the IPUMS USA website, https://usa.ipums.org/usa/.

Read senior economic analyst Gail Krumenauer's full article here. 

Oregon’s 2018 Natural Population Increase Was the Lowest on Record

In 2018, Oregon’s population increased by 54,200 to 4,195,300. This marked growth of 1.3 percent over the year, and growth of 9.5 percent since the 2010 Census. Portland State University’s Population Research Center recently released more detailed information on why this population growth has occurred.

There are two main reasons that lead to population change. First, an area increases in population if more births than deaths occur in a given year or vice versa. Second, population can increase or decrease through net migration. That is, over the year, people either move into or out of an area. A positive value of net migration means more people moving into an area than leaving it, while a negative value of net migration indicates more people leaving an area than moving in.

In 2018, natural increase contributed 6,600 to population growth, which was the lowest since comparable records began in 1960. The low natural increase is caused by an increase in the number of deaths (36,200), which was the second highest total since 1960 after 2017. In 2017, there were 36,800 deaths in Oregon. Since 2011, Oregon had a relatively low natural increase compared with the prior four decades. A lot of Oregon’s population increase in 2018 was due to net migration, which at 47,600 people was one of the largest net migrations since 1996.

To learn more about Oregon's population change, read the article by projections economist Felicia Bechtoldt. 

Oregon's Aging Workforce

Oregon’s workforce is aging. The number of Oregon jobs held by workers age 55 and over more than tripled from 1992 to 2017, while the total number of jobs grew by just 50 percent. Workers 55 years and over held just 10 percent of the jobs in 1992, increasing their share to 23 percent of all jobs by 2017. Driving this trend is the fact that much of the Baby Boom Generation is now 55 and over, and they are more likely to be in the labor force than previous generations were at this age. Many of these workers are probably planning to retire in the next 10 years, taking their skills and experience with them.

Although the aging workforce is a general demographic trend, it impacts employers, industries, or regions to varying degrees. Employers should know the age profile of their own workforce so they can plan accordingly for increased turnover from retirees. At a broader level, workforce planners need to know the demographic profiles of entire industries and regions to help gauge the need for future replacement workers.

The pace of retirements will likely be faster in industries that have an older workforce profile. Industry age profiles vary from the relatively young accommodation and food services sector where just 14 percent of workers are 55 and over to the relatively old mining and quarrying sector where 33 percent of workers are 55 and over. Although natural resources and utilities have high concentrations of older workers, they employ fewer workers and will require relatively few replacement workers. Some employers within these industries may struggle to find enough suitable workers if they don’t plan ahead.

Health care (both private and public) stands out for the size of its aging workforce, with 64,000 workers age 55 and over. Other industries with a large number of workers nearing retirement age are manufacturing (46,000 workers), retail trade (43,000), and private and public educational services (42,000).

Employers in these and in all other industries need to plan for how they are going to attract replacement workers, especially for jobs that require significant training.

To learn more about Oregon's aging workforce, read the full article written by State Employment Economist, Nick Beleiciks. 

Where Women Work and How Much They Earn

Nearly 873,000 jobs at Oregon businesses or state and local governments were held by women in 2016. Women represent 49 percent of employment in Oregon, but the share of jobs held by women varies considerably by industry.

Women’s average earnings were $3,444 per month in 2016, which was 69 percent of the $4,963 average monthly earnings of men. The average woman brings home $1,500 a month less than the average man. Like employment, the earnings of women relative to men vary by industry.

The average monthly paycheck for women is about two-thirds the average monthly paycheck for men, but this fact is not a very useful measure of gender pay inequality. Average monthly earnings figures do not take into account other factors affecting pay, such as total hours worked and hourly wages. Adjusting for the number of hours worked narrows the earnings gap between women and men, but still does not account for other factors that can significantly affect pay.

Women’s Average Earnings by Industry

Average monthly earnings of women were lower than that of men in every industry. The ratio of women’s to men’s earnings ranged from a relatively close 86 percent in accommodation and food services to a disparate 56 percent in arts, entertainment, and recreation, and in finance and insurance. There are many factors behind these disparities in earnings, such as the number of hours worked and the relative wages of occupations with higher concentrations of women, but that information is not available from this data source.

Women working in Oregon’s health care and social assistance sector have an average monthly paycheck of $3,696, which is just 62 percent of the men’s average. Women working in finance and insurance have a higher average paycheck than women in most other industries, but their earnings pale in comparison to what men are bringing in. With earnings just 56 percent of men’s, women in finance and insurance receive an average of $3,800 a month less than what men are making.

The smallest disparity is in accommodation and food services, where women’s earnings average 86 percent that of men’s. The large share of minimum wage earners in this industry likely contributes to this relative earnings equality. That near equity has a cost though, as average paychecks for both women and men were lower in accommodation and food services than in any other major industry.

Learn about women's employment by industry in "Where Women Work and How Much They Earn" by state employment economist Nick Beleiciks.  

Oregon’s 2017 Natural Population Increase Was the Lowest on Record

In 2017, Oregon’s population increased by 64,750 to 4,141,100. This marked growth of 1.6 percent over the year, and growth of 8.1 percent since the 2010 Census. There are two main reasons that lead to population change. First, an area increases in population if more births than deaths occur in a given year or vice versa. Second, population can increase or decrease through net migration. That is, over the year, people either move into or out of an area. A positive value of net migration means more people moving into an area than leaving it, while a negative value of net migration indicates more people leaving an area than moving in.

In 2017, natural increase contributed 7,900 to population growth, which was the lowest since comparable records began in 1960. The low natural increase is caused by an increase of the number of deaths (36,800), which was the highest since 1960. Since 2011, Oregon had a relatively low natural increase relative to the prior four decades.

Oregon Continues to Attract Migrants

A lot of Oregon’s population increase in 2017 was due to net migration, which at 56,800 people was the largest net migration since 1991.

Over the past 20 years, Oregon had an average net migration of 27,800 people per year. The lowest number of net migrants over the last 20 years was 7,000 in 2010. In general, we see net migrants increase as the economy expands and more jobs become available. Notice that prior to the Great Recession, net migration was booming in Oregon. As the recession hit, people became less mobile. This, combined with Oregon experiencing a deeper recession than the nation as a whole, brought net migration to its lowest levels since the 1980s.

To learn about population growth in metro areas, read Economist Felicia Bechtoldt's full article.

Get to Work! How Oregonians Commute to Work

Most Oregonians work in the same county that they live in. However, 20 percent of Oregonians work outside the county they live in. And in a few Oregon counties, about half the workers leave their home to work. Moving half the workforce out – and back into – a community every day puts an unusually large amount of pressure on local transportation systems.

Clackamas County has the largest population leaving the county to work every day, with 91,000 workers. That’s 48 percent of the workers living in Clackamas County. For context, that’s larger than the entire working population living in the Bend metro region. The vast bulk of those commuting workers are traveling to other counties within the Portland region. By contrast, in neighboring Multnomah County only 18 percent of the workers commute outside of the county.

Two smaller counties at the edge of the Portland region have relatively high numbers of commuters. Columbia County (49%) at the northern end of the Portland region and Yamhill County (35%) at the southwest edge. These are both rural economies with relatively smaller populations compared with the rest of the Portland region. Polk County has the majority of its workforce leaving the county to work. West Salem is in Polk County, while the rest of the City of Salem is in Marion County, dividing the second largest city in Oregon between two counties.

To learn more about Oregon commuters, read the full article written by workforce analyst Christian Kaylor. 

February 14th Fun Facts!

Today we can celebrate Oregon's birthday and Valentine's Day. Here are some fun facts in honor of both occasions.

Make a Wish!

159
Oregon officially became a state on February 14, 1859. Happy 159th birthday!

11,600
The average number of births in the U.S. on February 14 between 1994 and 2014

52,456
The 1860 Census population estimate for Oregon

4,142,776
Oregon's estimated population as of 2017

Be Mine

715
The number of Oregon jobs in sugar and confectionery product manufacturing in February 2017

793
Total employment at Oregon florists' business establishments in February 2017

57,000
The number of Oregonians in 2016 who had married someone in the past year

1.6 million
The number of unmarried Oregonians ages 15 and older in 2016

Characteristics of the Foreign-Born Population Working in Oregon

Roughly 10 percent (or 389,000) of Oregon’s population consists of people born outside the U.S. Of the foreign-born population in Oregon, roughly 367,000 are age 16 or older, and about 233,000 are employed. Foreign-born workers make up 13 percent of the state's civilian employed population. Almost half (46%) of Oregon's foreign-born population is native to Latin America, while 30 percent comes from Asia, another 15 percent is native to Europe, and 9 percent were born elsewhere outside the U.S.

Foreign-born workers tend to be more concentrated in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry, as well as manufacturing. About one out of 10 foreign-born workers can be found in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, or mining, and about one-fifth (18%) work in manufacturing. By comparison, 3 percent of the employed native-born population work in agriculture and related industries, and 10 percent work in manufacturing. Those born outside the U.S. are slightly less likely to be found in educational services or health care (17%) than Oregon workers born in the U.S. (24%).

To learn how much foreign-born workers earn relative to native-born workers, read Senior Economic Analyst Gail Krumenauer's full article.

Thanksgiving Fun Facts

First off and most important: Happy Thanksgiving! We hope there is delicious food and the company of loved ones for all of you on Thanksgiving. May your travels be safe, your shopping trips fruitful, your football teams winners, and your weekend long. We are treating you with some fun facts about Thanksgiving. 

1,571,678
The number of occupied housing units across Oregon in 2016 ─ potential stops for Thanksgiving dinner.

45,479
The number of multigenerational households in Oregon in 2016. It is possible these households, consisting of three or more generations, will have to purchase large quantities of food to accommodate all the family members sitting around the table for the holiday feast, even if there are no guests.

244 million
The forecasted number of turkeys raised in the U.S. in 2016 according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics. That is up 4.5 percent from the number raised during 2015.

44.5 million
The forecasted number of turkeys raised in Minnesota in 2016. Minnesota is the top turkey producing state, followed by North Carolina (33.5 million), Arkansas (26.0 million), Indiana (19.5 million), Missouri (19.2 million) and Virginia (17.2 million). 

$25.8 million
The value of U.S. imports of live turkeys in 2016, with 99.9 percent of them coming from Canada and the remaining from France according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The United States ran a $13.7 million trade deficit in live turkeys during the period but had a surplus of $159.4 million in sweet potatoes.

859 million pounds
The forecasted weight of cranberries produced in the U.S. in 2016. Wisconsin was estimated to lead all states in the production of cranberries, with 521.0 million pounds, followed by Massachusetts (estimated at 207.0 million pounds). Oregon, Washington and New Jersey were also estimated to have substantial production, ranging from 19.4 to 58.8 million pounds.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Facts for Features.

Halloween Fast Facts

Happy Halloween! We're treating you with some fun facts related to Halloween festivities.

16%
Share of people in the U.S. with costumes for their pets in 2017

72
The number of sugar and confectionery product manufacturing establishments in Oregon in 2016

$86.13
Average Halloween spending per buyer in 2017, according to the National Retail Federation's annual survey

327
Oregon's total number of gift and novelty stores in 2016, which includes seasonal Halloween costume stores

718,738
The 2016 population of potentially costumed Oregonians under age 15 in search of candy asking "trick or treat?"

1,533,430
The number of households statewide (2015) that children can pass by and/or visit while trick-or-treating

179 million
Estimated total number of people in the U.S. celebrating Halloween in 2017!

Poverty and Age in Oregon

Oregon’s poverty rate dropped more than 2 percentage points in 2016, to 13.3 percent. Among the states and Washington, D.C., Oregon’s 2016 poverty rate ranked right in the middle at 25th lowest. Poverty rates in 2016 ranged from 7.3 percent in New Hampshire to 20.8 percent in Mississippi in 2016. Back in 2006, Oregon’s poverty rate ranked 30th among the states and Washington, D.C. In the midst of the Great Recession in 2011, Oregon’s poverty rate ranked 36th lowest.

Many of the people in the United States who fall below the official poverty threshold are children or elderly. This is why economic conditions and the availability of jobs don’t change poverty rates very drastically or quickly – many of the people in poverty aren’t willing or able to take a job, so job availability doesn’t change their likelihood of being below the poverty line.

In 2016, just about one-third of the people below the poverty line in the U.S. were under the age of 18. In Oregon, a smaller share of those in poverty were children, at 27 percent. There were 40,200 Oregon children under the age of five in poverty in 2016; they made up 8 percent of people below the poverty line. Another 104,100 Oregon children ages five to 17 were in poverty, accounting for 19 percent of the total below the poverty line.

People age 65 and over make up one out of 10 people in poverty. In Oregon in 2016, 50,900 people age 65 and over had income below the poverty line. However, the population age 65 and over is large enough that the elder population actually has the lowest poverty rate. Oregonians age 65 and over make up 17 percent of the state’s population, but just 9 percent of those in poverty.

Read Economist Jessica Nelson's full article "Poverty and the Oregon Workforce".

Oregon Population Forecasts

Oregon’s population is projected to grow from today’s level of just over 4 million to about 6.2 million in 2065. In absolute terms, the “prime working age” (those 25 to 64 years old) group has the largest population and will continue this trend into the future. The more interesting trend comes when looking at the “senior” age group (those 65 and older) and the “youth” age group (those younger than 25). Although the youth population is forecasted to remain larger than the senior population, by 2065 the total number of Oregonians 65 years old and older is expected to almost equal the total number younger than 25 years old.

From 2020 to 2040 the senior population in all workforce areas is forecasted to grow at a much faster rate than either of the other two age groups. Eastern Oregon is expected to have the slowest senior population growth at 23.2 percent, while the Portland-Metro area senior population is expected to grow the fastest at 58.4 percent from 2020 to 2040.

In most of the workforce areas, the youth population is expected to grow the slowest of the three age categories. The slowest expected youth population growth rate is shown in the Rogue Valley area (1.3%), while the fastest youth population growth is expected in Clackamas (24.5%). Clackamas and Eastern Oregon are the only workforce areas where the younger than 25 age category is expected to grow faster than the prime working age group.

Learn more about population forecasts for workforce areas, read the full article "Oregon Population Forecasts" written by Economist Anna Johnson. 

Demographic Challenges for Rural Oregon's Workforce

The Oregon Employment Department recently released a special report entitled The Employment Landscape of Rural Oregon. Our examination of rural Oregon’s employment landscape shows a variety of factors have led to a slower recovery outside metropolitan areas. Demographic trends are among the most striking. Natural population growth is low, in-migration is slow, and young people often leave rural communities to seek educational or employment opportunities in urban centers.

Oregon’s rural communities are growing, just at a much slower pace than in urban centers. Net population change results from the combination of two factors: natural increase or decrease in a population (births minus deaths); and net migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants). In-migration – new residents moving in – accounts for all of the population growth in rural Oregon between 2010 and 2016. Oregon’s 23 rural counties combined actually had a natural decrease, with 400 more deaths than births among residents. In metro counties, natural increase accounted for 33 percent of population gains between 2010 and 2016.

A lack of natural increase alone wouldn’t be troubling for the workforce pipeline in rural areas, so long as in-migration included working adults and children. Between 1995 and 2015, that does not appear to be the trend though. There are more than 35,000 additional workers ages 55 and older in rural Oregon today, an increase of 135 percent. Meanwhile, the rural prime working age and youth workforces are both smaller today than back in 1995.

Rural Oregon is in need of its next generation of leaders and could benefit from finding ways to alleviate the tendency toward aging that is a major challenge in many nonmetro areas. Read more about demographics and the workforce in rural Oregon in the full article at QualityInfo.org.

Oregon’s 2016 Net Migration Was the Highest Since 1993

In 2016, Oregon’s population increased by 62,500 to 4,076,400. This marked growth of 1.6 percent over the year, and growth of 6.4 percent since the 2010 Census.

There are two main causes of population change. First, population can increase or decrease through net migration. That is, over the year, people either move into or out of an area. A positive value of net migration means more people moving into an area than leaving it, while a negative value of net migration indicates more people leaving an area than moving in. Second, an area increases in population if more births than deaths occur in a given year and decreases if births are outnumbered by deaths.

A lot of Oregon’s population increase was due to net migration, which at 52,100 people was the largest net migration since 1993. Over the past 20 years, Oregon had an average net migration of 27,100 people per year. The lowest number of net migrants over the last 20 years was 7,000 in 2010. In general, we see net migrants increase as the economy expands and more jobs become available. Notice that prior to the Great Recession, net migration was booming in Oregon. As the recession hit, people became less mobile. This, combined with Oregon experiencing a deeper recession than the nation as a whole, brought net migration to its lowest levels since the 1980s.

Natural increases contributed 10,400 to population growth in 2016, which was slightly higher than the previous year, when the natural increase was 10,300. Over the last two years, Oregon had a relatively low natural increase compared with the last three decades. The last time Oregon had a similar natural increase was in 1973, when the natural increase was 10,500.

Learn more about population in metro areas in the full article "Oregon’s 2016 Net Migration Was the Highest Since 1993" written by Economist Felicia Bechtoldt.

Fun Facts About Oregon Mothers with a Recent Birth

Happy Mother's Day to all mothers! Here are some fun facts about Oregon mothers who had a birth in the past year:

46,087

The number of Oregon women between the ages of 15 and 50 in 2015 who had given birth in the past 12 months according to the American Community Survey.

30.8%

The percentage of Oregon women ages 15 to 50 in 2015 who had a birth in the past year that were unmarried. About 69.2% percent of women ages 15 to 50 who had a birth in the past year were married. About 68.6% of teens ages 15 to 19 who had a birth in the past year were unmarried.

5,844

The number of Oregon women ages 15 to 50 living with a cohabiting partner in 2015 who had given birth in the past year.

58.9%

The percentage of women in Oregon ages 16 to 50 who had a birth in the past year who were in the labor force.

4,318 

Women in Oregon who gave birth in the past year received public assistance income.

30.8%

The percentage of Oregon women who gave birth in the past year who had a bachelor’s degree or higher. About 89 percent of women who gave birth in the past year have at least a high school diploma or equivalent.

62

The number of births in the past year per 1,000 women ages 15 to 50 with a graduate or professional degree in Oregon. The number was 46 per 1,000 for women whose highest level of education was a bachelor’s degree. 

Noah and Emma

The most popular baby names for boys and girls, respectively, in the U.S. in 2015 according to the Social Security Administration. Other baby names that were in the top of most popular names for boys in 2015 were: Liam, William, Mason, James, Benjamin, Jacob, Michael, Elijah, and Ethan. For baby girls, Olivia, Ava, Sophia, Isabella, Mia, Charlotte, Abigail, Emily, and Harper were in the top of most popular names.

Oregon Employment Forecast: Down Shifting from Full Throttle

Oregon’s economic expansion endures, albeit it at more subdued pace. This doesn’t come as a surprise, as the red hot job growth of recent years was unsustainable over the long run. Monthly growth decelerated from an average of about 5,000 jobs in 2015 to 3,000 in the final quarters of 2016 as Oregon’s economy approached full employment and felt the effects of a strong U.S. dollar and weak global economy, weighing down our export-dependent manufacturing sector.

The outlook calls for continued expansion with above average gains compared with the rest of the nation, but at a more moderate pace than in recent years according to the latest Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA). They anticipate growth to slow from the full-throttle rates of 3 percent to 3.5 percent to about 2.5 percent this year, or roughly 3,500 jobs per month. OEA points out that these gains are still strong enough to accommodate anticipated population growth and hold down the jobless rate.

Growth will be dominated by service-sector industries such as the large and diverse professional and business services (e.g., company headquarters, temp help, computer systems design); leisure and hospitality (e.g., restaurants, golf courses); and private health care. These three sectors will account for nearly two-thirds of net new jobs.

Goods-producing industries, whose growth outpaced the overall economy since 2013, are expected to play a smaller role going forward. Notably manufacturing, which downshifted into neutral last year following six years of gains totaling 27,000 jobs. OEA points to a weak global economy, the strong dollar, and the cyclical nature of manufacturing as reasons behind the flat forecast. Construction will also slow, but still add thousands of jobs as the housing rebound continues, driven by new household formation and in-migration. OEA estimates that new home construction lags demand by about a year. Overall, 2017 will end up 2.4 percent over 2016 (43,400 jobs) with a similar pace forecasted for 2018. 

Read Regional Economist Amy Vander Vliet's full article "Oregon Employment Forecast: Down Shifting from Full Throttle".

Challenges Facing Rural Oregon

More than 83 percent of Oregon’s population is concentrated in the state’s eight metropolitan statistical areas. Rural cities and towns stand as islands of development surrounded by a sea of forest, farms, and rangeland. This distinct urban/ rural divide is in a large part due to Oregon’s strict land use planning laws, which encourage density in urban settings over suburban sprawl into rural communities. Oregon’s rapid job growth has received significant attention as employment growth ranked second fastest in the United States over the past year. Much of the current economic expansion is being driven by job growth in the state’s major urban centers, while rural Oregon continues its long and slow recovery from the devastating recession. Why is the pace of recovery so much slower in rural Oregon? What economic challenges do rural Oregonians face?

An Uneven Recovery

Oregon has been in a period of economic expansion since October of 2014 when total nonfarm employment levels exceeded the pre-recession peak. It was a long recession and slow recovery, taking six and a half years to add back all the lost jobs. However, in rural Oregon the recovery is ongoing. Today, employment levels remain 3.2 percent below the pre-recession peak in rural counties, while employment levels in urban counties are 6.6 percent above the pre-recession peak. In order to recover from the recession, rural counties would need to add nearly 8,000 additional jobs, which would take another year and a half at the current pace of job growth.

Demographics

One of the largest challenges faced by rural economies is the overwhelming demographic trends that are leading to rapid aging in these communities. Natural population growth is low, in-migration is slow, and young people often leave rural communities to seek educational or employment opportunities in urban centers.

Oregon’s rural communities are growing, just at a much slower pace than in urban centers. According to Portland State University, rural counties added nearly 13,000 new residents between 2010 and 2015 (+1.9%), whereas urban counties expanded by 4.9 percent over the same period.

To learn more about the economic recovery, demographics, infrastructure and industry composition in rural Oregon, read the full article "Challenges Facing Rural Oregon" by Regional Economist Damon Runberg.