August 2021 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

 In August 2021, all but two of Oregon’s 36 counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. The unemployment rates in Harney and Wallowa counties remained unchanged.  Clatsop County saw the largest decrease over the month with a decline of 0.5 percentage point.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in August at 6.9%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Crook (6.8%), Klamath (6.8%), Curry (6.7%), and Grant (6.7%) counties. 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.0%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in August were Benton (3.8%), Sherman (4.1%), and Malheur (4.4%) counties. Sixteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 5.2%, and 10 counties had unemployment rates below the statewide rate of 4.9%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between August 2020 and August 2021. Most areas still have room to recover from pandemic job losses; the state has now recovered 72% of jobs lost in March and April 2020. The largest job increases since August 2020 occurred in the Willamette Valley (4.5%). The Coast (4.1%), Southern Oregon (3.6%), and Central Oregon (3.2%) also experienced large over-the-year employment increases. Eastern Oregon and the Portland-5 regions added 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

Read the original local press release.

Hiring and Retention in a Tight Labor Market

Oregon’s economy is continuing to recover and change rapidly. We’re 17 months past the initial pandemic recession downturn, and we’ve regained nearly two out of three jobs lost in spring 2020. In the first six months of 2021, Oregon employers added about the same number of jobs as in the 22 months leading up to the pandemic. For reference: when we were 17 months into the Great Recession, we hadn’t recovered at all. The job losses were still mounting. The speed and shape of this economic recovery looks different and has been happening much faster than what we’ve seen in the past.

While many businesses have done a lot of hiring, many others are having a hard time adding as many workers as they'd like right now. Their difficulty is made up of two general parts: competition due to widespread hiring, and a relatively low supply of available workers.

Both Oregon and the U.S. saw a record level of job openings in recent months. In Oregon, private businesses reported 98,000 job vacancies at any given time between April and June. That’s nearly 50% higher than we’ve ever seen in the eight-year history of our job vacancy survey. That spring hiring was happening in all sectors of Oregon's economy, and across more than 240 different types of occupations.

This record hiring demand also comes at a time when there's a relatively low available workforce.  Oregon’s unemployment rate was 5.6% in June. That’s relatively low by historical standards; the long-run unemployment rate has been 6.8% in Oregon.

There are also still many people who are having a hard time taking part in this recovery. There were 32,500 Oregonians between April and June who had a COVID-related issue that prevented them from looking for work. That could be their own underlying health conditions, or those parents who are in a bind finding child care or waiting until fully in-person school returns. While this trend has improved, in recent days the COVID-19 Delta variant has been on the rise.

Taken together, the strong hiring, relatively low unemployment, and barriers keeping some workers on the sidelines are creating a tight labor market. Employers have responded to tight labor market conditions in a number of ways.

Wages
For one, employers have raised wages. Real (or inflation-adjusted) average starting wages rose by more than 2% in Oregon over the past year. Businesses have raised their wages for existing workers too. Real average hourly earnings for all workers also rose by more than 2% compared to the pre-recession level.

Benefits and Perks
Not every employer can raise wages. Some have found other ways to recruit and retain talent. The labor market was also tight prior to the pandemic. In 2018 we surveyed private employers to ask about the benefits they offered employees. Three out of five offered health benefits, and half offered retirement benefits. One out of 10 of employers offering health insurance, and one out of five offering retirement benefits, cited worker hiring and retention advantages related to those offerings.

Half of Oregon's private firms offered paid holidays, and half offered paid vacation days. One-third offered at least one of the following: flexible work schedules, production or performance bonuses, paid professional development training, and life insurance.

Relaxing Experience Requirements
When the labor market has been tight in recent years, some employers have loosened their previous work experience requirements. This spring, about half (53%) of all job vacancies required previous work experience. Nearly 19,000 of the 98,000 job vacancies this spring required less than one year of prior experience. The largest number of these job openings requiring less than one year of experience were for restaurant servers, retail sales staff, nursing assistants, restaurant cooks, and food prep workers. When it doesn’t pose a safety risk, and employers are able to, loosening previous experience requirements can increase the number of people who qualify for their job openings.

Recruitment Intensity
In tight labor markets, employers tend to layer help wanted signs with other efforts such as referral incentives, signing bonuses, posting with online job boards, and working with recruiters outside of their immediate geographical area. This includes listing job openings with WorkSource Oregon, where tens of thousands of workers have been registering in the job matching system.

Any layering employers can do with their hiring and retention strategies can help them find and keep more workers in a tight labor market.

 

Spring 2021 Hiring Among Oregon Private Employers

Oregon businesses reported 97,800 vacancies in spring 2021. Total job openings increased 77% from the winter and 130% from spring 2020. This is the highest number of job vacancies seen in Oregon since the beginning of this survey in 2013. The previous high was 66,600 vacancies in summer 2017. The record high level of job vacancies is not unique to Oregon right now. The number of private-sector job openings in the U.S. totaled 8,995,000 in April 2021, beating the previous high seen in October 2018 (7,055,000) significantly.

Most openings in the spring were for full-time, permanent positions. Health care and social assistance topped the industry list in spring, with 22,200 vacancies. This has been the sector with the most vacancies 20 of the past 22 quarters. The leisure and hospitality industry had 19,900 vacancies, with 55% full-time positions and 7% requiring education beyond high school.

Hiring demand was widespread throughout industries and occupations. Four industries experienced record high vacancies: health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, retail trade (10,500 vacancies), and other services (7,000 vacancies). A majority of employers in every industry reported their vacancies as difficult to fill. Overall, 71% of vacancies were considered difficult to fill, another record high for this series.

Employers reported vacancies in more than 240 different occupations. The occupations with the most vacancies in spring 2021 were: retail salespersons (5,500 vacancies), maids and housekeeping cleaners (4,800 vacancies), personal care aides (3,700 vacancies), and waiters and waitresses (3,300 vacancies).

The average starting wage reported in spring was $18.44, a 3% inflation-adjusted increase from spring 2020. Total vacancies were up 130% from the level last spring at the height of pandemic restrictions. The number of vacancies offering a starting wage below $15 per hour increased the slowest, at 64%. The number of vacancies offering between $15 and $25 per hour more than doubled (+187%), as did vacancies paying above $25 per hour (+174%).

Learn more about job vacancies here.

Disparate Impacts of the Pandemic Recession in Oregon

The pandemic recession came upon a healthy economy with record high total employment and a record-low unemployment rate in spring 2020. Within two months’ time, Oregon lost 286,000 jobs and unemployment spiked to an all-time high of 13.2%. Job losses were not distributed evenly, affecting some industries and workers to a greater degree. These disparate employment impacts are detailed in a new report released by the Employment Department today. (Check out the podcast version too!)

By industry, three service-related sectors bore the brunt of the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality was impacted the most by far – losing half of its employment, or about 110,000 jobs between February and April 2020. The other hardest-hit sectors initially were other services – things like barber shops and hair salons, tattoo parlors – and also the education sector.

Leisure and hospitality in particular employed more women, more of Oregon’s young workers, and more Black, Indigenous, and workers from communities of color than Oregon’s economy overall. Other hard-hit sectors also tended to have more women and more low-wage workers. These are the Oregonians who experienced disparate job impacts of the pandemic recession in 2020.

These impacts are reflected in changes in unemployment claims activity during the pandemic. Regular unemployment (UI) claims activity rose dramatically across all demographics in Oregon. That said, the volume increased to an even greater degree for women and for younger workers.

Although workers of Hispanic or Latino origin were more likely to be working in leisure and hospitality than other sectors, their claims volume did not increase to a greater degree than for non-Hispanic workers. There's a combination of possible reasons: it could be Hispanic or Latino workers were less likely to be laid off, or that they were laid off but less likely to seek unemployment benefits, or possibly did seek benefits but had some difficulty accessing them. It's also noteworthy that their over-representation in leisure and hospitality was not as pronounced as for all young workers (who made up 27% of sector employment), or women's in education (where they held two out of three jobs).

The focus of any economic downturn often falls first on those who lost their livelihoods. The pandemic recession also created disease exposure risks to those who remained working at in-person or high-contact jobs. Much like those who were more likely to suffer pandemic-related job losses, data suggest that lower-wage earners, younger workers, and workers from communities of color who remained employed appear to have had relatively less opportunity to telecommute. This creates another disparate impact of the pandemic on the workforce.

More information about the disparate job impacts of the pandemic recession can be found in the full report.

Oregon Adds 6,900 Jobs in May

In Oregon, nonfarm payroll employment grew by 6,900 in May, following monthly gains averaging 11,400 in the prior four months. Monthly gains in May were largest in private education (+3,400 jobs); professional and business services (+2,900); construction (+900); and financial activities (+900). Only one major industry shed more than 500 jobs in May: transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-800 jobs).

In May, Oregon’s nonfarm payroll employment totaled 1,864,000, a drop of 109,000 jobs, or 5.5% from the prerecession peak in February 2020. Oregon’s employment dropped to a low of 1,687,500 by April 2020. Since then, Oregon has recovered 176,500 jobs, or 62% of the jobs lost between February and April 2020. 

Leisure and hospitality accounts for the bulk of Oregon’s jobs not recovered since early 2020. It employed 169,600 in May, and added only 1,600 jobs in the most recent two months. The industry is still 46,700 jobs below its peak month of February 2020, so it accounts for 43% of overall nonfarm payroll jobs lost since Oregon’s prerecession peak. The restaurants, bars, and hotels that make up accommodation and food services have shown flat hiring trends over the most recent three months; the employment level in this component industry has been close to 150,000 in March, April, and May.

Read the full press release on Qualityinfo.org. 

April 2021 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

 In April 2021, 19 out of 36 of Oregon’s counties experienced over-the-month increases in their unemployment rates. Curry and Morrow counties saw the largest over-the-month increase at 0.3 percentage points each in April. Nine counties experienced decreases in their unemployment rates over the month, and eight counties experienced no change in their unemployment rates.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in April at 8.3%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Curry (7.9%), Grant (7.7%), Crook (7.6%), and Klamath (7.6%) counties. 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.3%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in April were Benton (4.7%) and Sherman (5.0%) counties. Sixteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.1%. Thirteen counties also had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.0%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between April 2020 and April 2021. This reflects the recovery period since employment in Oregon hit its lowest levels in the current pandemic recession. Most areas still have room to recover from pandemic job losses; the state has now recovered 59% of jobs lost in March and April 2020. The largest job increases since April 2020 occurred in the Coast (17.3%). Central (15.5%), Southern (10.2%), and Willamette Valley (8.2%) also experienced large over-the-year employment increases. Eastern Oregon and the Portland-5 regions added 8.0% and 6.7%, respectively.

Next News Releases

The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and industry employment data for May 2021 on Tuesday, June 15, 2021. The May 2021 county and metropolitan area unemployment rates will be released on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.  

Read the original press release.

Oregon Job Growth Slowed to 2,200 in April

Hiring in Oregon slowed significantly in April. Total nonfarm payrolls added 2,200 jobs, following a revised gain of 19,600 in March. Oregon's unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.0%.

Job growth also slowed nationwide in April, and the U.S. unemployment rate was 6.1%. Oregon has regained 59% of the jobs lost in spring 2020, compared with 63% for the U.S.

April job gains in Oregon were largest in government, which added 2,300 jobs as many K-12 schools moved from fully remote to partially in-person instruction. Leisure and hospitality added 2,000 jobs over the month. Monthly declines were largest in manufacturing, which dropped by 900 jobs.

Although Oregon's unemployment rate hit a stand-still in April, underlying labor force dynamics continued to shift. April marked the first month since the pandemic recession started that those experiencing permanent job losses were the largest group of laid off Oregonians. At the height of the pandemic shutdowns a year ago, nine out of 10 layoffs were temporary. 

More information about Oregon's employment situation is available in the full news release, or in the monthly video summary.

Why Oregon's Labor Market is Tighter Than You Think

We've been hearing more in recent days about employers' challenges finding workers. Over the past week, we've teamed up with the Office of Economic Analysis to publish a summary of reasons Oregon's labor market is tighter than you might think.

The pandemic recession -- just like all economic downturns -- is unique. During this recovery labor demand remains strong. At the same time, several simultaneous factors are constraining the supply of labor for those job openings. They include:

1. Concentrated Nature of the Shock
Last spring, many businesses with similar labor pools shut down overnight. The economy experienced record-setting job losses and the unemployment rate increased nearly 10 percentage points in April 2020 alone. Those who remain unemployed are also largely on temporary layoff. In the previous recessions, the job losses were largely permanent, and the economic nadir did not occur until more than two years into each cycle, so businesses hiring during the recession and recovery had excess labor supply for a while. During this recovery the jobless numbers have dropped much faster.

Oregon’s unemployment rate matched the nation’s at 6.0% in March, below the average of 6.8% over the past two decades. Currently, hiring employers are facing a typical or slightly lower-than-typical available labor pool for their job openings. The available labor force is not evenly distributed either. While all sectors lost jobs in the initial COVID downturn, some have bounced back rapidly or hit new employment highs (such as transportation, warehousing and utilities, and professional and technical services). Depending upon the types of jobs employers are hiring for, there may be no excess labor. 

2. Pandemic Concerns
The unemployment rate doesn’t include would-be workers who are out of the labor force, meaning they neither have a job, nor are they looking for one. Supplemental information from households in the Current Population Survey shows an estimated 45,000 people in Oregon said they were prevented from looking for work due to COVID-related reasons during the first quarter of 2021. While vaccinations have accelerated, only about half the adult population has received at least one vaccine dose for COVID-19 as of mid-April. COVID case counts are also rising in many areas of Oregon again this spring.

3. Lack of In-Person Schooling
Heading into the pandemic, one out of every six Oregonians in the labor force had kids, worked in an occupation that cannot be done remotely, and also did not have another non-working adult present in the household, according to research from the Office of Economic Analysis. As of mid-April, three-fourths of Oregon’s K-12 schools have students learning remotely from home either part- or full-time, according to Oregon Department of Education records.

Even with the anticipated return of full-time, in-person learning for the 2021-2022 school year, child care slots, which were already too scarce in most areas of the state prior to the pandemic, and summer programs will likely continue operating with reduced capacity for some time. These constraints limit workforce options for some parents of younger children.

4. Federal Aid and Unemployment Benefits
Total personal income in Oregon today is about 15% higher than before the pandemic. Strong federal fiscal policy response via recovery rebates alone added $12 billion to personal income in Oregon. Although this has brightened the overall economic outlook, a stronger safety net where incomes are higher today than pre-COVID can temporarily reduce labor force participation in the short term for some workers. 

Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) adds $300 onto weekly unemployment insurance benefits through September 4, 2021. In the first quarter of 2021, the weekly regular unemployment (UI) benefit has averaged $370 per week. With the additional $300 FPUC payment, that adds up to an average payment of $670 per week. That’s roughly the same as earning $16.75 per hour for someone working full time. During the first quarter of 2021, that has also represented full wage replacement (between 100% and 104%) relative to regular UI claimants’ pre-pandemic earnings on the job. 

Some perspective here: earning $670 per week, working year round would total $34,800 in gross earnings for a worker. By comparison, the median earnings for full-time workers in Oregon in 2019 was $50,712. With “Now Hiring” signs in many business windows and stronger wage offerings as employers compete for available workers, it’s unlikely that this benefit, in itself, is keeping a vast number of workers on the sidelines.

 

Furthermore, unemployed workers cannot refuse job offers or a recall to their previous job (if temporarily laid off) because of their unemployment benefit amount. Refusing work solely due to weekly unemployment benefit payments would be considered fraud. The Employment Department provides ways to report job refusals.

Last but not least, Oregon has a long-running record of adding labor force through net in-migration of workers from other states and areas. While Oregon continued to attract migrants in 2020, net migration fell to its lowest level since 2013 in Oregon, and was 20% lower at 28,600 than in 2019.  

More information on Oregon's current labor market dynamics can be found in the full article and OEA blog post, written by State Economist Josh Lehner and State Employment Economist Gail Krumenauer.