Employee Tenure Averages Four Years

How long do workers stay in a given job? Nationally, the average employee tenure in January 2020 was 4.1 years. Data to address this question isn’t available for Oregon, but every two years the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes this information for the nation.

Data back to 2006 show little variation – job tenure has been fairly consistent over the last decade plus. A slight peak was reached in the January 2012 results, which is probably the effect of workers staying longer in the jobs they held – if they managed to hang on to them – when the nation entered the Great Recession, which lasted from late 2007 to the middle of 2009.

Public-sector workers tend to stay in their jobs longer than the average in the much larger private-sector workforce. The January 2020 median tenure for public-sector workers was 6.5 years, compared with 3.7 years among workers in the private sector.

Other facts about employee tenure as of January 2020:

• Workers age 55 and older have the longest tenure out of any age group at around 10 years.
• Median tenure was similar for men and women at 4.3 and 3.9 years, respectively.
• Tenure was similar across education levels, with median tenure ranging from 4.6 years for those with less than a high school diploma to 5.5 years for those with a doctoral or professional degree.

To learn more, read economist Jessica Nelson's full article here. 

Employers Report More than 57,000 Job Vacancies in 2019

Throughout the year, the Oregon Employment Department surveys private employers from all industries and areas of the state to ask about the job vacancies they are actively trying to fill. For each vacancy, the employer provides the job title, starting wage, and education and experience requirements for the job. They also specify whether their vacancies are for full- or part-time positions, and permanent or seasonal jobs. If they face challenges with vacancies, employers also write in the primary reason for difficulty filling their job openings.

Employers reported 57,000 job openings at any given time in 2019. Most vacancies offered full-time (77%) permanent (93%) positions. About one-third (34%) of job vacancies required education beyond high school. The average hourly wage for these vacancies was $18.81. Vacancies with higher education requirements were more likely to require previous experience and offer higher average wages.

Health care and social assistance reported the most vacancies of any industry (11,200), followed by leisure and hospitality (7,700), and retail trade (7,400). Together these three sectors accounted for 46 percent of all job openings statewide. Despite big vacancy totals in a few sectors, hiring demand was widespread across the economy. All sectors, except the relatively small information industry, reported at least 1,000 job vacancies at any given time in the year.

Employers were hiring for a wide variety of jobs; they reported vacancies across 394 different occupations. Occupations with the highest number of job vacancies in 2019 reflected this variety. They included retail salespersons (2,300); personal care aides (2,200 vacancies); laborers and freight, stock, and material movers (1,600); heavy truck drivers (1,600); cashiers (1,400); fast food and counter workers (1,300); and registered nurses (1,200).

To learn more, read economist Jessica Nelson's full article here.

Wage Disparity by Race and Ethnicity

Over the last decade, the wage disparity by race and ethnicity in Oregon has remained consistent. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), Asian and non-Hispanic white workers have the highest wages. In 2018, wages for black, American Indian, mixed-race, and Hispanic or Latino workers of any race ranged between $39,000 and $45,000 annually – at least $10,000 less than white workers and $20,000 less than Asian workers.

However, real wages have grown faster for Hispanic and Latino and black workers than for non-Hispanic white workers. On average, real wages for Oregon workers grew 13.1 percent from 2008 to 2018, an increase of $6,256. American Indian workers have seen the lowest real wage growth of 11.8 percent in the last decade. Real wages for all other racial and ethnic groups grew by at least 14 percent. Asian workers have seen the most real wage growth at 27 percent, an increase of $14,160 in their annual average wages.

This wage disparity is due in part to the industries of employment for each racial and ethnic group. The largest industry of employment for all groups is education and health services, with an annual average wage of $51,550 in 2018. However, the breakdown of employment after this industry varies. In aggregate, the second most common industry of employment for people of color is leisure and hospitality, which had the lowest annual average wages in 2018 ($22,754). In contrast, the second most common industry of employment for non-Hispanic white workers is professional and business services, with an annual average wage of $69,800. Manufacturing, which has one of the highest annual average wages in the state ($70,652), employs 18 percent of Asian workers, which may help explain Asian workers’ higher incomes.

Educational attainment is also a factor. The 2018 American Community Survey reported that 36 percent of non-Hispanic whites over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 27 percent of people of color. However, 51 percent of Asian residents have a bachelor’s degree or higher, the highest of any race or ethnicity. Typically, those with higher education qualify for higher-paying jobs, which also factors into the higher annual average wages for Asian and non-Hispanic white workers.

As Oregon’s population continues to diversify, these patterns may change. Positive changes may depend on increasing access to education for people of color and creating pathways to employment in higher-wage fields.

To learn more, read economist Sarah Cunningham's full article here. 

Differences in Workers' Employment, Education and Industry by Ethnicity

According to the 2013-2017 five-year ACS estimates (the most current available), Oregon had roughly 2.1 million people between the ages of 25 and 64. Of them, 236,000 were of Hispanic or Latino origin, while the state’s non-Hispanic population in the same prime working age range totaled 1.9 million. The non-Hispanic population includes Oregonians of any race (African-American, Asian, Native American, White, or any other race(s)) that did not self-identify as Hispanic or Latino.

Educational attainment differed widely between Hispanic and non-Hispanic prime working age populations. Almost two-thirds (63%) of the non-Hispanic population had some education beyond high school. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of the Hispanic population had a high school diploma or less.

Labor Force Participation

Employment and labor force participation also varied notably between Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. At all education levels, larger shares of the Hispanic prime working age population were in the labor force. The largest disparities occurred among those with less education. Nearly half (45%) of the non-Hispanic population with less than a high school degree sat out of the labor force, compared with 21 percent of Hispanic or Latino Oregonians in the same age group. Among those with at least some college education, shares of the population who were employed looked quite similar.

Education Pays

Hispanic and Latino workers ages 25 to 64 with a high school diploma or less were particularly concentrated in lower-wage industries. Annual wages for all jobs covered by Unemployment Insurance in Oregon averaged $52,400 in 2018. While roughly one-third (35%) of all non-Hispanic workers held jobs in sectors that paid below the all-industry average, nearly half (48%) of Hispanic workers did. As educational attainment increased, the distribution of industry employment looked similar by ethnicity.

Manufacturing and construction showed similar patterns for Hispanics and non-Hispanics. Comparable shares of both Hispanic and non-Hispanic prime-age workers across education categories held jobs in manufacturing. Larger shares of prime-age workers with a high school degree or less held jobs in construction compared with more educated workers.

Keep Learning for Higher Earnings

Overall, the portion of Oregonians ages 25 to 64 that participated in the labor force and held jobs increased along with educational attainment. Employed Oregonians with more education were also more likely to work in higher-wage industries. Larger shares of the Oregon’s Hispanic or Latino prime working age population had not earned a high school diploma. Hispanic and Latino workers were more concentrated in lower-paying industries. Additional data about the demographic and educational attainment characteristics of workers can be found on the IPUMS USA website, https://usa.ipums.org/usa/.

Read senior economic analyst Gail Krumenauer's full article here. 

Steady College Enrollment Rate among Recent High School Grads

For the last 15 years, the overall share of recent high school graduates that are attending college by October of the year they graduated has been between 66 percent and 70 percent. While it might make logical sense to think that enrollment rates of recent high school graduates would depend to some degree on the business cycle, in the last couple of decades the decision to attend college immediately after high school doesn’t appear to change much in economic expansions versus recessions. However, the labor market experiences of recent high school graduates vary considerably with the strength or weakness of the economy, with young people graduating from high school during recessions facing much higher unemployment rates and more difficulty finding work, regardless of college enrollment.

We’re now in the longest economic expansion on record in the United States. Young people, however, do not appear to be postponing their college education to join in the job market bonanza. In October 2018, 69 percent of recent high school graduates were enrolled in college. These numbers come from the Current Population Survey produced by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is the same survey that establishes the unemployment rates and labor force participation rates for the nation, states, and local areas.

Between January and October 2018, 3.2 million young people in the United States graduated from high school. Another 527,000 young people dropped out of high school between October 2017 and October 2018. Of those who graduated, 2.2 million (69%) enrolled in college by October 2018, with 2.0 million enrolling full time. Most enrolled in four-year colleges (1.4 million).

Increases in college enrollment rates have slowed in the last couple of decades. Back in 1960, fewer than half (45%) of recent high school graduates enrolled in college by the fall following graduation. By 1970, just over half of recent graduates were enrolled. The numbers dipped back below the 50 percent mark through the early 1970s, but by the early 1980s the share rose above 50 percent and kept on rising. In 1990, the share of recent high school grads enrolled in college reached 60 percent. It’s stayed between 60 percent and 70 percent ever since. In the 1990s, college enrollment averaged 63 percent; that rose to 66 percent in the 2000s, and enrollment has averaged 68 percent of recent graduates so far this decade. It appears the era of rapidly rising college enrollment among recent high school graduates has reached an end.

Women tend to have slightly higher college enrollment than men, and that’s been the case since the 1990s. The gap has been widening, as college enrollment among women has increased more in the last decade than among men. Over the last decade, enrollment in the October after high school graduation averaged 64 percent among men and 72 percent among women. The prior decade it averaged 63 percent of men and 68 percent of women.

Read the full article, written by employment economist Jessica Nelson, here. 

Enrollment at Oregon’s Public Universities

Enrollment in higher education is largely counter-cyclical. Enrollment tends to soar during periods of recession and drop during expansions. Nationally, and here in Oregon, we are in the midst of a historically long economic expansion with many economists agreeing we are at or near “full employment.” Based on where we are in the business cycle we would expect to see enrollment down as employment opportunities abound and unemployment is very low. That has not been the case. Collective enrollment across Oregon’s public university system has been largely flat since 2011. However, this doesn’t mean that the public university system is entirely kicking the counter-cyclical label.

Enrollment across Oregon’s eight public universities grew rapidly as we entered the last recession in 2008. The increase in enrollment corresponded with a spike in unemployed Oregonians. It is common for people who lose a job to go back to school during these tough economic times in order to receive education and training for a new career. The number of unemployed Oregonians peaked in 2009 and has been declining rapidly since. In fact, there are significantly fewer unemployed Oregonians today than at the peak of the last expansion in 2006 and 2007. Although the employment outcomes for Oregonians are nearly as good as ever, enrollment in Oregon’s public universities remains near peak levels.

To learn more about the relationship between university enrollment and unemployment, read the article written by Regional Economist Damon Runberg.