Oregon Jobs Projected to Increase 16% by 2030

Oregon’s total employment is projected to grow by 317,600 jobs between 2020 and 2030, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections point to historically high job growth between 2020 and 2030 and accounts for recovery from low employment levels in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated recession. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.  

In 2020, there were 1,998,400 jobs in Oregon. The projected 16% increase in employment between 2020 and 2030 includes private-sector gains of 283,500 jobs, growth of 25,700 jobs in government, and an additional 8,300 self-employed Oregonians. 

Beyond gains associated with the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession and anticipated economic growth, another 2,197,200 job openings will be created by 2030 to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change. Together, the number of job openings due to economic recovery, job growth, and replacements will total 2,514,800. 

Learn more about Oregon Employment Projections on our projections page.

 

August 2021 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

 In August 2021, all but two of Oregon’s 36 counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. The unemployment rates in Harney and Wallowa counties remained unchanged.  Clatsop County saw the largest decrease over the month with a decline of 0.5 percentage point.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in August at 6.9%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Crook (6.8%), Klamath (6.8%), Curry (6.7%), and Grant (6.7%) counties. 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.0%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in August were Benton (3.8%), Sherman (4.1%), and Malheur (4.4%) counties. Sixteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 5.2%, and 10 counties had unemployment rates below the statewide rate of 4.9%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between August 2020 and August 2021. Most areas still have room to recover from pandemic job losses; the state has now recovered 72% of jobs lost in March and April 2020. The largest job increases since August 2020 occurred in the Willamette Valley (4.5%). The Coast (4.1%), Southern Oregon (3.6%), and Central Oregon (3.2%) also experienced large over-the-year employment increases. Eastern Oregon and the Portland-5 regions added 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

Read the original local press release.

April 2021 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

 In April 2021, 19 out of 36 of Oregon’s counties experienced over-the-month increases in their unemployment rates. Curry and Morrow counties saw the largest over-the-month increase at 0.3 percentage points each in April. Nine counties experienced decreases in their unemployment rates over the month, and eight counties experienced no change in their unemployment rates.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in April at 8.3%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Curry (7.9%), Grant (7.7%), Crook (7.6%), and Klamath (7.6%) counties. 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.3%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in April were Benton (4.7%) and Sherman (5.0%) counties. Sixteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.1%. Thirteen counties also had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.0%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between April 2020 and April 2021. This reflects the recovery period since employment in Oregon hit its lowest levels in the current pandemic recession. Most areas still have room to recover from pandemic job losses; the state has now recovered 59% of jobs lost in March and April 2020. The largest job increases since April 2020 occurred in the Coast (17.3%). Central (15.5%), Southern (10.2%), and Willamette Valley (8.2%) also experienced large over-the-year employment increases. Eastern Oregon and the Portland-5 regions added 8.0% and 6.7%, respectively.

Next News Releases

The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and industry employment data for May 2021 on Tuesday, June 15, 2021. The May 2021 county and metropolitan area unemployment rates will be released on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.  

Read the original press release.

March 2021 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

In March 2021, 24 out of 36 of Oregon’s counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. Clatsop and Union counties saw the largest over-the-month decrease, declining 0.9 percentage point each in March.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March at 8.0%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Grant (7.5%), Curry (7.4%), Coos (7.3%), and Crook (7.3%) counties. 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.8%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in March were Malheur (4.4%) and Sherman (4.6%) counties. Eighteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.0%. Eighteen counties also had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.0%.

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between March 2020 and March 2021. The largest job losses occurred in the Portland-5 (-7.8%). The Coast (-6.3%), the Willamette Valley (-5.8%), and Central Oregon (-3.6%) also experienced large over-the-year employment losses. Southern Oregon and Eastern Oregon dropped 3.0% and 2.3%, respectively.

Next News Releases

The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and industry employment data for April 2021 on Tuesday, May 18, 2021. The April 2021 county and metropolitan area unemployment rates will be released on Tuesday, May 25, 2021.  

Read the original press release here. 

Did Oregon’s Residential Real Estate Market Become More Affordable in the Pandemic?

Even before the onset of COVID-19 the fast growth in home prices over the past five years had many across the state concerned about housing affordability. In an unexpected turn we have seen a large increase in the demand for housing during this pandemic recession. The high demand has led to historically low inventories of residential real estate for many communities across the state. High demand and low inventory is leading to dramatic home price appreciation, further increasing concerns around housing affordability.

I developed a housing affordability index that looks at the monthly mortgage of the average house as a share of the average wage in a particular geography. Across the state, the average monthly mortgage at the end of 2020 was roughly 26% of the average monthly wage, a considerable decline from 29% the same time last year.

Affordability varies quite dramatically across the state. The least affordable of the communities highlighted was Hood River, where the average monthly mortgage accounted for 44% of the average monthly wage. The lack of affordability in places like Hood River or Bend are twofold. First, the average monthly wage of workers employed locally is lower than the statewide average, in Hood River’s case by more than $1,300 a month. Second, the average monthly mortgage was around $320 higher than the state. Bend also ranked poorly in housing affordability; the average monthly mortgage was around 35% of the average monthly wage. Surprisingly, the Portland Metro Area (Washington Co.) was generally more affordable than the state as a whole due to higher wages that helped to balance the relatively high housing costs. The Salem metro area also ranked relatively high on affordability, where the average mortgage was only around 24% of the average monthly wage.

A time-series of this housing affordability measure shows that concerns about affordability may be overstated. The low cost of borrowing alongside strong wage gains the past several years helped to counter, but not completely overcome, the growth in housing prices. Despite the fact that home prices are near or exceeding the peak from the last expansion, affordability remains notably higher than back in the mid-2000s for every community highlighted. In fact, the last year showed a trend towards the real estate market becoming more affordable, which is likely surprising to anyone who may be looking for a house today.

Low Interest Rates Drive Improvement in Affordability

The dramatic increase in the average wage over the past nine months is misleading as the average is rising due to the loss of low-wage jobs rather than real substantive wage gains. The reported 2020 wages were thrown out and wages were modeled using a three-year trend to check whether housing affordability was being held in check by the artificially high wage increases during the pandemic or by historically low interest rates. Did housing affordability change when modeling a lower average wage? Not much. In fact, housing still moved towards being more affordable even when dropping the average wage to something more consistent with what we likely would have seen had COVID not happened. The real driver in affordability today is interest rates. These historic low interest rates have held the dramatic increase in house prices largely in check. The average worker who buys the average house with today’s interest rates will spend a slightly smaller share of their income on that mortgage than they would have this time last year.

We all live in the real world and housing affordability is more complex than this simplified index. More expensive housing means buyers need a larger down payment. If you were saving to get a 20% down payment on your first house and you were looking at a $350,000 house you would need $70,000 saved. If you lived in someplace like the Bend metro area where home prices have risen more than 10% in the past year that $350,000 house would now likely cost around $390,000. That means your down payment now needs to be $78,000 to get to 20% and avoid mortgage insurance. Most people are not seeing wages increase fast enough to keep pace with these housing prices, which means they are falling behind on their savings goals. However, federal stimulus likely helped many prospective first-time buyers boost their savings.

Finally, this pandemic recession has not been an equal opportunity offender. Job losses have disproportionally impacted lower-wage workers. Due to high demand and low supply the more affordable homes in most markets have seen the largest price increases over the past year. The barrier to entry for first-time buyers is high and remains a distinct challenge for many Oregonians. The good news is that the combination of an increasing pace of new housing construction and a return to a more normal level of geographic mobility should lead to an increased supply of housing as we move further into 2021.

To learn more, read Regional Economist Damon Runberg's full article here. 

October 2020 Employment and Unemployment in Oregon’s Counties

In October 2020, all of Oregon’s 36 counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. In 32 counties, unemployment rates dropped by half a percentage point or more. Lincoln County experienced the largest over-the-month decrease at 1.9 percentage points.

Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October at 8.7 percent. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates include Multnomah (8.3%) and Crook (8.0%). 

Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 4.1 percent. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in October were Morrow (5.1%) and Malheur (5.2%). Twenty-one counties had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.9 percent. Twenty-one counties also had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.9 percent.

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between October 2019 and October 2020. The largest job losses occurred in the Portland-5 (-9.9%). The Coast (-7.9%), Willamette Valley (-7.6%), and Central Oregon (-5.5%) also experienced large over-the-year employment losses.

Read the original press release here.