Oregon’s total employment is projected to grow by 317,600 jobs between 2020 and 2030, according to new projections from the Oregon Employment Department. The projections point to historically high job growth between 2020 and 2030 and accounts for recovery from low employment levels in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated recession. In addition, many job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations.
In 2020, there were 1,998,400 jobs in Oregon. The projected 16% increase in employment between 2020 and 2030 includes private-sector gains of 283,500 jobs, growth of 25,700 jobs in government, and an additional 8,300 self-employed Oregonians.
Beyond gains associated with the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession and anticipated economic growth, another 2,197,200 job openings will be created by 2030 to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change. Together, the number of job openings due to economic recovery, job growth, and replacements will total 2,514,800.
This morning the Employment Department released the September unemployment rate and jobs numbers for Oregon. After averaging monthly gains of 10,200 jobs from January through August, nonfarm payrolls lost 200 jobs in September.
The jobs recovery looks quite different across different areas of the economy. About half of local government payroll jobs are in public K-12 schools and higher education. In September, local government fell short of its typical hiring level by 3,700 jobs. Local government has struggled to regain jobs since the pandemic recession, only adding back about 26% of the jobs lost in spring 2020.
The hotels, restaurants, bars, and entertainment places in Oregon's leisure and hospitality sector have also struggled to get back to pre-pandemic job levels. They've been hiring at a good pace, with an average of 3,500 in monthly job gains so far in 2021. Leisure and hospitality has regained 62% of the jobs lost in spring 2020. The tremendous size of the task of adding back the 111,000 jobs lost last spring remains a challenge though -- especially during a time of record job openings and employer competition for workers.
Some industries have fully recovered and now expanded beyond their February 2020 job levels. Professional and technical services added 1,200 jobs in September. These companies, which provide a mix of architectural, engineering, computer design, and other services, had 6,000 more jobs in September than they did before the recession.
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities employment surged during 2020, which was a stark contrast to most of the rest of Oregon's economy. The sector added 1,000 jobs in September, and has 3,900 more jobs than it did before the recession. As of September, the banks, insurance, real estate and rental companies that make up the financial activities sector had also regained 99% of the jobs lost in spring 2020.
Despite the pause in overall job gains, Oregon's unemployment rate continued to improve. The rate was 4.7% in September, a significant decline from 5.0% in August. More information about Oregon's employment situation can be found in the full news release.
Professional and business services has added a lot of jobs in recent years. It is a large and varied industry super sector that includes everything from law offices, engineering services, and computer systems design to company headquarters, temporary help firms, call centers, and janitor services. It is separated into three sectors: professional and technical services, management of companies, and administrative and waste services.
The overall super sector employed 241,890 in 2020, roughly 13% of total employment in the state. The largest sector was professional and technical services, which included 17,830 firms with 98,339 workers. The largest industries in professional and technical services are computer systems design and related services with 16,735 workers, engineering services with 11,098 workers, and accounting and bookkeeping services with 11,005 workers. Wages in this sector are high, averaging $79,760 in 2020.
Professional and business services is expected to continue adding jobs into the future. Oregon Employment Department projections for 2019 through 2029 show it is expected to add 33,000 jobs for a 13% growth rate. At the industry level, computer systems and design is expected to add the most jobs at 4,400 and grow the fastest at 26%.
In June 2021, all but two of Oregon’s counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. The unemployment rate in Sherman County did not change, and in Lake County it increased by 0.1 percentage point. Clatsop, Multnomah, and Wheeler counties saw the largest decrease over the month with a change of -0.4 percentage points.
Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in June at 7.7%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Crook (7.4%), Curry (7.3%), Klamath (7.2%), and Grant (7.2%) counties.
Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 3.5%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in June were Benton (4.4%), Sherman (4.6%), and Malheur (4.6%) counties. Nineteen counties had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 5.9%, and 14 counties had unemployment rates below the statewide rate of 5.6%.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between June 2020 and June 2021. Most areas still have room to recover from pandemic job losses; the state has now recovered 64% of jobs lost in March and April 2020. The largest job increases since June 2020 occurred on the Coast (7.1%). Central Oregon (6.5%), the Willamette Valley (5.2%), and Eastern Oregon (4.4%) also experienced large over-the-year employment increases. Southern Oregon and the Portland-5 regions added 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively.
Oregon businesses reported 97,800 vacancies in spring 2021. Total job openings increased 77% from the winter and 130% from spring 2020. This is the highest number of job vacancies seen in Oregon since the beginning of this survey in 2013. The previous high was 66,600 vacancies in summer 2017. The record high level of job vacancies is not unique to Oregon right now. The number of private-sector job openings in the U.S. totaled 8,995,000 in April 2021, beating the previous high seen in October 2018 (7,055,000) significantly.
Most openings in the spring were for full-time, permanent positions. Health care and social assistance topped the industry list in spring, with 22,200 vacancies. This has been the sector with the most vacancies 20 of the past 22 quarters. The leisure and hospitality industry had 19,900 vacancies, with 55% full-time positions and 7% requiring education beyond high school.
Hiring demand was widespread throughout industries and occupations. Four industries experienced record high vacancies: health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, retail trade (10,500 vacancies), and other services (7,000 vacancies). A majority of employers in every industry reported their vacancies as difficult to fill. Overall, 71% of vacancies were considered difficult to fill, another record high for this series.
Employers reported vacancies in more than 240 different occupations. The occupations with the most vacancies in spring 2021 were: retail salespersons (5,500 vacancies), maids and housekeeping cleaners (4,800 vacancies), personal care aides (3,700 vacancies), and waiters and waitresses (3,300 vacancies).
The average starting wage reported in spring was $18.44, a 3% inflation-adjusted increase from spring 2020. Total vacancies were up 130% from the level last spring at the height of pandemic restrictions. The number of vacancies offering a starting wage below $15 per hour increased the slowest, at 64%. The number of vacancies offering between $15 and $25 per hour more than doubled (+187%), as did vacancies paying above $25 per hour (+174%).
In December 2020, 27 out of 36 of Oregon’s counties experienced over-the-month increases in their unemployment rates. Oregon’s unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percentage point between November and December, and eight of Oregon’s counties followed the state with a loss of 0.4 percentage point or more.
Deschutes County saw the largest over-the-month increase, jumping from 6.7% in November to 7.6% in December. Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in December at 7.7%. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates included Crook (7.6%), Deschutes (7.6%), and Grant (7.5%).
Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 4.2%. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in December were Benton (4.3%) and Sherman (4.4%). Twenty-six counties had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.4%. Twenty-seven counties also had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.7%.
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between December 2019 and December 2020. The largest job losses occurred in the Portland-5 (-10.8%). The Coast (- 8.8%), Willamette Valley (-8.5%), and Central Oregon (-7.0%) also experienced large over-the-year employment losses. Southern Oregon and Eastern Oregon came in at -5.2% and -3.2%, respectively.
Next News Releases
The Oregon Employment Department will release statewide unemployment rate and industry employment data for January 2021 on Tuesday, March 2, 2021. The January 2021 county and metropolitan area unemployment rates will be released on Tuesday, March 9, 2021.
In October 2020, all of Oregon’s 36 counties experienced over-the-month decreases in their unemployment rates. In 32 counties, unemployment rates dropped by half a percentage point or more. Lincoln County experienced the largest over-the-month decrease at 1.9 percentage points.
Lincoln County had Oregon’s highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October at 8.7 percent. Other counties with some of the highest unemployment rates include Multnomah (8.3%) and Crook (8.0%).
Wheeler County registered the lowest unemployment rate for the month at 4.1 percent. Other counties with some of the lowest unemployment rates in October were Morrow (5.1%) and Malheur (5.2%). Twenty-one counties had unemployment rates at or below the statewide rate of 6.9 percent. Twenty-one counties also had unemployment rates at or below the nationwide rate of 6.9 percent.
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in all six of Oregon’s broad regions between October 2019 and October 2020. The largest job losses occurred in the Portland-5 (-9.9%). The Coast (-7.9%), Willamette Valley (-7.6%), and Central Oregon (-5.5%) also experienced large over-the-year employment losses.
Oregon’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent in October
from 7.9 percent, as revised, in September. For the past few months, Oregon’s
unemployment rate has closely tracked the national unemployment rate which also
fell to 6.9 percent in October from 7.9 percent in September.
Oregon’s total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 14,200
jobs in October, following a revised gain of 9,300 jobs in September. Over the
past four months the rate of job growth has averaged 14,400 per month,
following more rapid growth in May and June, when 74,500 jobs were added. Oregon
employers added jobs in each of the past six months, and the state has
recovered 46 percent of the jobs cut in March and April.
Over-the-month job gains in October were largest in construction (+6,100 jobs), professional and business services
(+4,300), and leisure and hospitality
(+4,300). Declines were largest in government
(-7,400 jobs).
Leisure and
hospitality continues to be the industry most impacted by the economic
effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its employment bounced back substantially in
May and June, but job gains have slowed over the past four months. Employment
totaled 162,000 in October, which was down 54,300 jobs, or 25 percent, since
its peak month of February. Over the past 12 months, two of its component
industries cut employment by more than a quarter. Since October 2019 arts, entertainment, and recreation is
down by nearly half (-13,000 jobs, or -49 percent) and accommodation is down by nearly a third (-8,600 jobs, or -32
percent).
Most schools in Oregon were impacted by a combination of
distance learning and declining enrollment this autumn, which resulted in job
cuts at all levels of education. When comparing October 2020 with October 2019,
all of education—from grade schools to colleges—have experienced job
reductions. Local government education
reduced employment to 118,700 in October from 139,900 in October 2019 (-21,200
jobs, or -15%). This industry includes local K-12 schools, community colleges
and the Oregon University System. Private
education, which includes private grade schools and private universities,
cut 7,400 jobs, or 20 percent, since October 2019.
Two major industries expanded since October 2019. Construction surged by 6,100 jobs over the
month in October and is up 700 jobs since October 2019, putting it close to its
record levels during late 2019 through March 2020. Transportation, warehousing, and utilities added 1,200 jobs in
October and grew fast for most of the past few years, adding 5,800 jobs over
the past 12 months. The industry benefitted from rapid demand growth in online
shopping and the resulting expansion of warehousing and distribution.
