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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Oregon Employment Forecast

The latest report from the state Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) contains more good news than it has in a while. The free-fall is over, the worst is behind us, and recovery is in sight. However, once here, the recovery both in Oregon and the nation will be slow and jobless in the initial stages.

The September 2009 report forecasts that we'll continue to see job losses through the end of 2009, but not nearly to the same extent as late last year or earlier this year. Next year will start flat, but growth kicks in during the second quarter and gains momentum as the year progresses. It may be as late as 2013 before we return to pre-recession employment levels.

From start to finish, OEA forecasts that Oregon will lose 119,800 jobs over nine quarters, a decline of 6.9 percent. The worst quarters are over: the fourth quarter of 2008 (‑29,500 jobs) and the first two quarters of 2009 (‑33,600 and ‑25,700).

Oregon lost jobs at a faster pace than the nation in 2008, and this trend is expected to continue in 2009. Once we return to growth, however, Oregon should again outpace the nation.Read the full article for more detailed information about the most recent OEA employment forecast, or read the forecast document.

2 comments:

Caroline said...

Is the projected 2013 full recovery for employment for the US or Oregon? What industries were hit the hardest in Oregon? Which industries will constitute the rebound? I suppose I could look at the full report, but that is why I read the blog, so I don't have to!

Brooke Jackson-Winegardner said...

Answer posted! See the blog post on 10/08/09.