Thursday, October 8, 2009

A little more about the economic forecast

We love to answer questions about Oregon's economy and encourage our readers to give us feedback in the comments section. Yesterday's post caused at least one reader to ask some additional questions about Oregon's forcasted employment growth...

Is the projected 2013 full recovery for employment for the US or Oregon?
The mention of a projected full recovery of employment by 2013 was for Oregon, but this is also accurate for the United States. The nation is projected to reach its pre-recession employment level around the 4th quarter of 2012 or the 1st quarter of 2013. Oregon isn't projected to reach it's pre-recession employment until at least the 1st quarter of 2013.

What industries were hit the hardest in Oregon [by the current recession]?
If we compare employment in August 2009 to employment in December 2007 (which is the official national start date of the current recession), we see...

Industries losing the largest number of jobs:

Manufacturing (-37,600)
Construction (-24,500)
Professional and business services (-17,200)
Retail trade (-16,200)

Industries losing the largest portion of their employment:

Construction (-24%)
Mining and logging (-22.5%)
Real estate, and rental and leasing (-20%)
Manufacturing (-19%)
Administative and waste services (-16%)

Which industries will constitute the rebound?
If we look at current employment (3rd quarter 2009) and compare it to projected employment in the 1st quarter of 2013, then...

Industries projected to gain the largest number of jobs:

Professional and business services (+35,300)
Education and health services (+18,000)
Retail trade (+12,000)
Leisure and hospitality (+10,300)

Industries projected to have the greatest percentage growth of jobs:

Professional and business services (+19.5%)
Health care and social assistance (+9%)
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+9.1%)
Financial activities (7.8%)

Thanks for your question, Caroline!!!