Wildfires in Oregon: Businesses and Jobs in Evacuation Zones

Over the past several days, we've watched in collective fear and sadness as nearly 1 million acres of our beautiful state have gone up in flames. While in recent history most wildfires have been isolated to wilderness areas, the 16 fires currently burning across Oregon are destroying homes and businesses in several areas across the state. While the Research Division of the Employment Department cannot quantify or capture the immensity of these losses, we do have information about the businesses and jobs in current wildfire evacuation zones.

To get to such detailed levels of geography, we have to use information from our Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and that information has a time lag. So the estimates used here reflect business establishments and jobs covered by Unemployment Insurance taxes as of this time last year, the third quarter of 2019.

The number of business establishments in wildfire evacuation zones as of 8:30 a.m. today (September 11) totaled 21,350 across 13 different counties. These business establishments had 232,600 jobs. For context, that's nearly the same size as the entire private health care industry (262,400 jobs) in Oregon statewide during the third quarter of 2019. The majority of these business establishments (60%) and their jobs (61%) are under Level 1 (or "Be Ready") evacuation orders. Another 30 percent of the affected businesses (and 29% of their jobs) are in Level 2 (or "Be Set") evacuation status. 

One out of 10 business establishments and related employment in current wildfire evacuation zones are in Level 3 ("Go") status. 

Clackamas County has both the largest employment in Level 3 areas (10,000 jobs) and across all evacuation levels (166,000). Jackson County's employment in current evacuation zones totals 37,300 jobs, with 4,000 of those in Level 3 areas. While Marion County has the third-highest total of jobs in all evacuation areas (13,100), Lincoln County has the third-highest Level 3 jobs count (2,100). 

By industry sector, those with the largest job totals in all levels of evacuation zones -- health care, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality -- are among the state's largest overall industries. If we look just at the most-impacted, Level 3 areas though, the largest numbers of jobs come from natural resources and mining (3,700), which makes sense given the geography of wildfires. The level of impact is notable though: while natural resources and mining made up 4 percent of all jobs in the third quarter of 2019, the industry accounts for one out of five (18%) of Level 3 evacuation area jobs. Construction is also disproportionately affected, with 13 percent of Level 3 area jobs, compared with 8 percent of all jobs.

We'll continue to update these numbers and publish them as the fire situation continues to develop. In the meantime, take care everyone, and if you have questions, please send them to me at Gail.K.Krumenauer@oregon.gov.

1.7 Million Oregonians Lived in a Household Where There Was a Loss in Employment Income in July

The U.S. Census Bureau developed the Household Pulse Survey in order to measure the experiences of households during the COVID-19 pandemic. This experimental data series is a valuable tool for us in understanding how the pandemic is impacting Oregonians at the household level. The U.S. Census Bureau began collecting weekly responses on April 23rd, roughly a month after the onset of the direct impacts from the pandemic, and continued the weekly survey through the last week in July.

As of the last week of the survey an estimated 1.7 million Oregonians lived in a house where someone experienced a loss in employment income. In many instances loss of employment income was due to businesses closing or layoff events. However, a large number of workers have seen their pay cut or hours reduced in response to the economic shock. According to the Small Business Pulse Survey, also developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, roughly one out of four businesses reduced the hours worked by paid employees. The loss of employment income is the most direct and important impact measured by the Household Pulse Survey.

Although an estimated 1.7 million Oregonians lived in a house where someone saw their employment income decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of workers who have seen a net loss in income is likely much lower. Many workers have received additional unemployment insurance benefits due to federal legislation that added $600 to the weekly unemployment insurance benefit amount and expanded the program to assist self-employed workers and others not typically covered by unemployment insurance. However, as of the end of July the federal boost to unemployment insurance expired, likely resulting in more households feeling the impact of the loss in employment income.

One of the more revealing questions asked of respondents in the weekly pulse survey was, do you expect to lose employment income in the next four weeks? For the last week of the survey (July 16-21st) it was estimated that roughly 37 percent of Oregon adults expected someone in their household to have a loss in employment income in the next four weeks. Responses for this particular question were highest during the first few weeks of the survey then gradually began to decline. However, over the past several weeks workers became more pessimistic, with the share of adults expecting a loss of employment income in the coming weeks up 8 percentage points from the end of June.

Is this pessimism related to businesses using up their Pay Check Protection (PPP) loans? The continued growth in COVID-19 cases? Or, the expiration of expanded UI benefits? It is impossible to know exactly, but it is revealing that Oregonians didn’t feel any more secure as of the end of July compared with the depths of the stay-at-home orders in late April and May.

Read Regional Economist Damon Runberg's full article here.

Who Can’t Work From Home During a Global Pandemic?

COVID-19 rapidly spread across the United States and forced a patchwork of shutdowns that reduced business activity in order to save lives. Oregon is no exception as the “Stay Home, Save Lives” executive order was put into effect on March 23rd which enforced social distancing rules. Faced with few options, organizations who could shift to remote work did as a means to survive COVID-19. A study from the University of Chicago examined “work context and generalized work activities” from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) to get a sense of whether or not a job could feasibly be done at home.The surveys asked if there was frequent contact with customers, in-person experiences, or specialized equipment. Each of these factors limit an employee’s ability to work remotely. Jobs were given a ranking based on responses which helped determine if none, part, or all of a position could be done at home. According to the study, 37 percent of occupations in the United States could realistically be done from home.

Vast Gaps in Remote Work Between Occupations
If we assume the national estimates on the share of workers who can telecommute roughly approximate Oregon, we can learn about our workforce and who can (and can’t) telecommute.

Over half of all the workers in Oregon who could potentially telecommute are in the five occupation groups with the best access to telework: computer and mathematical; educational instruction and library; legal; business and financial operations; and management. The presence of these occupations in different places and industries begins to tell a story of who can and can’t work from home.

Industries with the Least Telework Access Faced Steep Job Losses
The building blocks of a business and an industry are the occupations within it. Unsurprisingly then, wide gaps in telework exist between sectors. For instance, while 83 percent of jobs in educational services could feasibly be done from home, just 4 percent of positions in accommodation and food services had access to remote work. To put this in perspective, accommodation and food services employed five times as many Oregonians as educational services prior to social distancing efforts. Yet, about 29,000 education jobs could potentially be done at home compared with only 7,200 in accommodation and food services. Unsurprisingly, accommodation and food services accounted for 40 percent of job losses between March and April 2020. Again, teachers and other public employees may face cuts in the future, but it still suggests that remote work may have staved off some initial declines.

Industries split evenly around the national average of jobs with potential access to remote work at 37 percent – eight above and eight below. The quarter of a million jobs lost from March to April 2020 is a different story. Job losses were highly concentrated in sectors with below average access to telework options. Those sectors with less access to telework accounted for 60 percent of the pre-COVID-19 workforce, yet they made up 83 percent of job losses between March and April 2020. Conversely, industries with above average telecommuting access were vastly underrepresented in initial job losses. While those sectors made up 36 percent of the state’s employment in March 2020, they only made up 12 percent of monthly job losses.

Oregon Metro Areas Vary Greatly in Telework Access
The composition of local businesses has major ramifications on the share of individuals who can work from home which results in a split amongst U.S. cities. In Oregon, the Corvallis MSA led the pack with 40 percent of jobs that could viably be done from home followed closely by Portland at 39 percent. Only 27 percent of jobs in Albany were telework compatible. The divide between industries can help explain why these gaps exist. These local business communities are fairly different. Both Portland and Corvallis have robust finance, information, and professional service industries which have some of the best remote work potential. Some of Albany’s most prominent sectors are manufacturing and retail trade, neither of which have more than 25 percent of jobs with telework access.

Across the board, Oregonians who could telecommute took home a larger share of wages than those who couldn’t. In Portland, 39 percent of jobs could be done from home yet they brought in 48 percent of all wages. Differences in the share of employment and wages were wider in areas with higher telework compatibility. As access to remote work declined, the gap between share of employees who could telework and share of wages also decreased. Regardless, high earners tend to have better remote work options, leaving low-wage workers vulnerable to financial loss.

Conclusion
As COVID-19 cases continue to climb in Oregon and around the United States, people face an uncertain economic future. If Oregon follows the path of California, New York, or several other states, more aggressive social distancing efforts may be reinstated. Of course, public health policy is designed to save lives and has been incredibly successful in other countries. Nevertheless, opportunity costs exist and those costs are distributed disproportionately. It’s likely that industries like accommodation and food services or retail trade will be hit hard if those safety measures are necessary. For these sectors and workers, social distancing and telecommuting aren’t an option. As leaders design policy in response to COVID-19, it’s crucial that the 63 percent of workers who can’t work from home are protected.

To learn more about who can and can't work from home, read workforce analyst Brandon Schrader's full article here.

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Filed in Oregon Rose from 800 on Sunday, March 15 to 18,500 on Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Economic Impacts

The number of initial Unemployment Insurance claims filed in Oregon rose from approximately 800 on Sunday, March 15 to a total of 18,500 on Tuesday, March 17, 2020. Although we know the COVID-19 coronavirus is causing a reduction in economic activity both nationally and in Oregon, it’s too early for unemployment rate or payroll jobs numbers to show the impact of these employment disruptions. The Employment Department will provide more information online as updated data become available.

Unemployment Insurance Benefits

The Oregon Employment Department provides Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits to most workers who are out of work through no fault of their own. To get benefits, workers must meet some requirements. In general, to claim and receive unemployment benefits for a week, workers must be available for work, able to work, and actively look for work they can do. Today the Employment Department enacted temporary rules to give more flexibility in providing unemployment benefits to COVID-19 affected workers.

Unemployment Insurance benefits are available during temporary layoffs related to COVID-19 situations. These benefits occur for employees whose employer stops operation for a short period of time, such as cleaning following a coronavirus exposure, or by government requirement. Workers can get unemployment benefits, and do not need to seek work with other employers if their place of employment will resume operations. To receive benefits, affected workers must still be able to work, stay in contact with their employer, and be available to work when called back. A full resource guide with questions and answers about specific COVID-19 coronavirus-related situations and unemployment benefits is available at Oregon.gov/employ. This site also has information for filing an online claim.

For help finding jobs and training resources, contact your local WorkSource Oregon center or go to WorkSourceOregon.org. 

To file an online claim for unemployment benefits, go to Oregon.gov/employ or call 1-877-FILE-4-UI. Equal Opportunity program — auxiliary aids and services available upon request to individuals with disabilities. Contact: (503) 947-1794. For people who are deaf or hard of hearing, call 711 Telecommunications Relay Services.

Read the full news release here.