Tuesday, November 9, 2010

UO Index up in September, but economic worries linger

The UO Index rose 0.2 percent in September, which was the first increase since June. But overall, "incoming data continue to signal a weak economic environment. Compared to six months ago, more than half the index components declined, while the UO Index fell 6.4 percent.

"The twin forces of inventory correction and fiscal stimulus waned in 2010, and subsequent growth has been insufficient to generate a rapid reversal of the labor market losses experienced in 2008 and 2009. "

Good signs, but...
Among the UO Index components:
- Initial unemployment claims fell sharply, to their lowest levels since March.
- Employment services payrolls rose slightly.
- Residential building permits were largely unchanged.
- The index's measure of trucking activity edged up.

"The movements in the Index are similar to those seen in the last recession (2001-2003). If this pattern holds true, "the UO Index signals that, at a minimum, sustained labor market recovery will be delayed until next year, with actual job losses possible over the next three to six months."

For more details, you can read the full release. Older issues and indexes for Lane County, Portland, and Central Oregon are also available.

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