Job-to-Job Flows: New Statistics of Workforce Dynamics for Oregon

There has been a marked decline in the rate of job change in the U.S. since 2000, according to job-to-job flow statistics on worker reallocation from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

The decrease in job changing during the Great Recession was especially steep and job change rates, although rising again, remained low through summer 2013. This is troubling because job changes are associated with wage growth as workers generally flow to higher-paying jobs. Increasing job change rates should eventually lead to wage growth, according to economists studying these trends.

Recently released state-level job-to-job flow figures reveal the same trend in Oregon:

Definitions

Hiring Rate from Persistent Nonemployment – These are job hires where the worker moves from persistent nonemployment to employment. Persistent here means the worker was likely without a job for at least three months prior to starting the job.

Separation Rate to Persistent Nonemployment – These are job separations where the worker moves from employment to persistent nonemployment. Persistent here means the worker was likely without a job for at least three months after leaving the job.

Job-Changing Rate, Hires – These are job-to-job hires that result from job-to-job moves with short-to-no nonemployment between jobs. The rate is calculated by dividing the number of job-to-job hires by the total number of jobs.

Job-Changing Rate, Separations – These are job-to-job separations that result from job-to-job moves with short-to-no nonemployment between jobs. The separation may be voluntary or involuntary, such as from a layoff, but there's no way to determine this from the data. Research from the Census Bureau finds these types of separations are predominately voluntary because they are associated with higher earnings and increased job tenure at the destination job.

Read more about Job-to-Job Flows in Nick Beleiciks' article: Job-to-Job Flows: New Statistics of Workforce Dynamics for Oregon.