Monday, September 19, 2011

U of O Index of Economic Indicators Declined in July

The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators has fallen for the fourth month in a row, dropping 0.5 percent to 90.2 in July 2011, down from a revised 90.7 the previous month. Highlights of the latest UO Index report, authored by Economist Tim Duy, are quoted below:

• Labor market data was, on average, weak in July. Employment services payrolls – largely temporary employment – fell, suggesting that employers turned cautious during the month.

• Consumer confidence (smoothed with a five month moving average) fell in July, suggesting caution on the part of households. Still, July figures for personal consumption expenditures reveal a solid gain in the wake of a decline in the second quarter.

• The recovery that began in the second half of 2009 slowed to a crawl in the first half of this year, leaving both Oregon and the nation with historically high unemployment. While incoming data remain consistent with disappointingly slow growth rather than recession, the expansion is clearly fragile at this juncture.

Get more details on the monthly statewide UO Index in the full July report.

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