Monday, June 27, 2011

Recovering lost jobs: snapshot of Oregon cities

Last Friday our post referenced the lukewarm state of the economic recovery. A recent report from IHS Global Insight, prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors, provides some additional context to outlook for recovery in Oregon's six metropolitan areas. The report details the slow return to pre-recession job levels in metros across the state and nationwide.

Looking at Oregon, the report projects "return-to-peak" employment will occur the fastest in Corvallis and Portland. The report data indicate that Corvallis will recover to its previous peak employment level in the second quarter of 2013. In Portland, the reported pre-recession peak occurred in the first quarter of 2008; IHS expects the return to this peak in the second quarter of 2014. Keep in mind, a return to peak indicates the restoration of job numbers lost in the recession, but no net gain.

The Salem metro is predicted to return to its highest employment level (first quarter of 2008) again in the second quarter of 2015. For the Medford and Eugene metro areas, returns to peak employment aren't predicted until 2018 and 2019, respectively. In Bend, the report cites a return to the pre-recession peak sometime after the year 2021.

In addition to employment projections, the report also includes tables with historical 10-year employment growth rates from 2001 to 2011, and gross metropolitan product as a share of gross state product. See the full report for data, and an article from The Oregonian for additional summary information.

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