Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Employment Forecast: Better Times Ahead!

Sometimes I just want to post a graph and let it do all the talking for me. But you might not want to spend 5 minutes teasing out all the information from a graph; you might rather spend 2 minutes reading an explanation. So here are some notes:

Four times a year the Office of Economic Analysis publishes employment projections. The current data is in the above graph; it shows the historical and projected change in employment from quarter to quarter.

The second quarter [of 2010] marked the second consecutive quarter of job growth in the state, but at an anemic pace of just 0.5 percent - or less, if one discounts the temporary hiring of Census workers last spring.

Oregon's short-term outlook reflects growing uncertainty over the pace of the recovery. Third quarter, layoffs in the public sector (Census-related, and in state and local governments) are expected to more than offset gains in the private sector. Growth will resume in the fourth quarter, but at a lackluster pace.

Overall, 2010 will end with a net loss of 1.2 percent (18,700 jobs) from 2009.

If you want more details about the changes, including anticipated changes by industry, please see regional economist Amy Vander Vliet's original article.

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